In China, Economy Grew 9.8%, a Higher Rate Than Expected

In China, Economy Grew 9.8%, a Higher Rate Than Expected
20 January 2011 - 09:51

BEIJING - China's economy grew at a higher-than-expected rate of 9.8 percent in the fourth quarter and inflation eased only slightly last month, its National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.
The agency said the economy grew at a rate of 10.3 percent for the full year, while the rate of inflation was 3.3 percent. Inflation fell in December to 4.8 percent, from 5.1 percent in November. G.D.P. growth rose from 9.6 percent in the third quarter and topped the 9.2 percent forecast by market analysts surveyed by Reuters.
The report did little to quell concern that China's economy was growing too rapidly. Analysts say that the numbers mean the government will have to further tighten monetary policy, which could lead the Chinese currency to appreciate against the dollar.
Chinese officials conceded that inflation was a result of rising food costs. Chinese citizens have been complaining of rising food prices, with some staples increasing 25 percent in the last few months.
"It's clear that the government policy stance has shifted" from worrying about growth to controlling inflation, said Arthur Kroeber, head of the economics research company Dragonomics, based in Beijing.
Over the last few months, the government has taken incremental steps to tighten growth and curb inflation. But bank lending continues to surge, and on Thursday, the government reported that fixed-asset investment rose 23.8 percent, while property investment soared 33.2 percent.
Some analysts said that they thought one way to combat inflation would be to allow the Chinese currency to strengthen.
The American government has been pushing China to allow its currency, the renminbi, to appreciate, and it has been a major topic at the current visit of President Hu Jintao of China's trip to the United States.
Still, analysts said they do not expect immediate changes. The G.D.P. figures were not drastically different from predictions, and Chinese leaders will like want to gauge inflation further before acting, Mr. Kroeber said.
Seen broadly, the numbers offer another insight into China's changing economy. The government now seems able to avoid the boom-bust cycles, unlike in the 1980s and 1990s, that were prominent during the first decades of economic reforms.
"The cycles have flattened out," said Helen Qiao, an economist with Goldman Sachs, "so the swings are not so dramatic."

Source: The New York Times

 

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